Existential Threats to Pakistan

Pakistan's Afghan policy has had significant consequences, including the rise of extremist ideologies and militant groups. The exclusion of the Taliban from the post-Taliban power structure in Afghanistan, combined with the shift of US resources and attention to the war in Iraq, allowed the Taliban to regroup and threaten the stability of Afghanistan. The resulting instability has negatively affected Pakistan, including the rise of militant groups within the country's borders and the spread of extremist ideologies. The Pakistani state and its rulers have long been in denial about the enemy's true nature within their borders, allowing extremist narratives to go unchecked and giving space for extremist groups to gain support. To address these issues, Pakistan must take a holistic approach that addresses the root causes of extremism and works to build stronger, more inclusive institutions that can effectively address the needs and concerns of the country's citizens.

Pakistan's Afghan Policy and the Blowback Effects

Pakistan's Afghan policy suffered a major setback with the ouster of the Taliban, as Pakistan had hoped that its security concerns would be considered in Afghanistan's future security and political order.

However, Pakistan was on the sidelines of Afghanistan's political and security reconstruction. It faced hostility, distrust, and demands to take military action against Pakistani militants aligned with the Afghan Taliban.

The US-Pakistan partnership gradually turned into double-dealing. The US developed a strategic partnership with India and showed a lack of willingness to accommodate Pakistan's concerns about Indian influence in Afghanistan.

Pakistan's View of Post-Taliban Political Reconstruction in Afghanistan

The Bonn Process, which legitimized state and nation-building in Afghanistan, excluded the Taliban, leading to their resurgence and threatening the stability of Afghanistan and its political order.

Pakistan had advocated for negotiating and sharing power with the Taliban, and failure to do so led to ongoing conflict and difficulty in implementing national reconstruction.

Pakistan has been confronting an existential threat from within its borders in the form of a complex network of militant jihadi organizations, which have thrived due to the decline of state institutions and corruption by the political elite.

Three political narratives have gone largely ignored or inadequately countered: the portrayal of the Taliban as "our people," the belief that Muslims cannot commit heinous acts, and the idea that the terrorists are acting in self-defence.

The right-wing media and religious parties have argued that terrorism is a reaction to the American-led international intervention in Afghanistan.

Pakistan has struggled to address the issue of extremism within its borders, particularly about the Taliban and other extremist organizations. While the government initially supported the United States in its efforts to stabilize Afghanistan, the media generated sympathy for the Afghan Taliban, presenting them as freedom fighters. This created confusion over the distinction between "good" and "bad" Taliban, with some powerful figures viewing violent extremist groups as allies and supporters. This lack of understanding about the long-term effects of tolerance for militant groups and their narrative on society ultimately led to the emergence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan around 2007, which has been engaged in a campaign of terrorism against the Pakistani state and society. It has been reported that the top Taliban leadership sought safe houses and refuge in Pakistan, leading some Western policymakers and Pakistani analysts to accuse the state and its security establishment of extending support to the Afghan Taliban and other groups, such as the Haqqanis. This conflictive position on the Taliban can be explained by Pakistan's desire for a neutral or friendly Afghanistan that does not allow any power to work against its interests.